Uncertainty of Joaquin’s path could mean trouble for coastal communities

Mark Wysocki, a meteorologist who specializes in forecasting and weather analysis, says it’s too early to predict Joaquin’s impact on the Northeast, but expects the storm to be somewhat similar to Hurricane Sandy in the difficulty to predict the exact track of the storm until 48 hours out.

Bio: http://www.eas.cornell.edu/people/profile.cfm?netid=mww3

 

Wysocki says:

“The exact track of a Hurricane is very important for coastal communities since they need at least two days to make preparations. Unfortunately, the National Hurricane Center can only give 24 hours landfall forecast that has any degree of certainty. So coastal communities are in trouble.

“Like Hurricane Sandy, the European Model, or ECMWF, is forecasting a completely different storm track than the American and Canadian models. Last time, the ECMWF correctly forecasted Sandy six days in advance to make landfall while all the other models forecasted Sandy to head out to sea until three days before landfall.

“Now the ECMWF stands alone again, taking Joaquin well out to sea while all the other models bring the Hurricane onshore three days from now. You can see the problem the NHC has in trying to predict the storm track of Joaquin. Do you trust the ECMWF, which has a very good history of predicting coastal storms, or go with the majority of models?

“For now, the best I can tell you, Joaquin will sit and spin in the Bahamas for the next 30 hours with a small increase in intensity.  We have to wait until the storm gets out of the Bahamas and interacts with the polar jet stream across the eastern half of the U.S. before we can get a good idea on the track of Joaquin.  This will happen Saturday morning.”

 

 

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Daryl Lovell
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dal296@cornell.edu

 

 

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