Don’t get your hopes up on GDP growth in third quarter

Cornell University economist Steven C. Kyle, is an expert in macroeconomics and government policy, he says forecasts that predict 2.5 percent GDP growth for the third quarter are overestimating the strength of the U.S. economy.

Kyle will be available to comment on the U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis preliminary estimation of the country’s economic growth during the third quarter as it is release on Friday morning.


Kyle says:

“You can find ‘consensus’ estimates of Friday’s third quarter GDP in the neighborhood of 2.5 percent. While that would be great news, it probably ain’t gonna happen.

“If it did it would be the strongest growth we have had in more than a year, but the gradual slowing of underlying indicators over the past few months doesn’t make me optimistic that we are going to see a growth spurt this quarter. Add to that the fact that this expansion, though slow and plodding, has been going on for quite a long time by now.”

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